The influence of new information that contradicts common knowledge about earthquake preparedness in Israel: A mixed methods experiment study.

BACKGROUND: A major earthquake in Israel is inevitable. Individual risk perceptions and preparedness can mitigate harm and save lives. The gap between the public's concerns and those of experts is reflected in their differential perceptions regarding the components that influence the occurrence of an earthquake in Israel. Whereas the public believes that geographic location is the critical variable, the experts note additional variables that need to be considered. Common knowledge regarding the risks of earthquake occurrence in Israel is based on a distinction between high and low-risk areas, such that the closer a residential area is to the Great Rift Valley, the higher the risk that an earthquake will occur. OBJECTIVES: To examine the variables affecting public preparedness in Israel (effective communication agent (communicator), high and low earthquake risk areas) and the degree to which experts' knowledge contradicts respondents' common knowledge. METHODS: The study used a mixed-methods approach combining qualitative and quantitative research. The first stage included in-depth interviews with earthquake experts (n = 19). The second stage consisted of an experiment conducted among a representative sample of the public (n = 834). RESULTS: Most people believe that geographical location constitutes the main risk factor for earthquakes in Israel. Yet experts claim that additional variables affect earthquake intensity and damage: building strength, earthquake magnitude, distance from earthquake epicenter, soil type, and interaction between these four. The study found that knowledge of expert information affects public willingness to prepare. The direction of this influence depends on participants' risk perceptions regarding residential area and on degree of consistency with common knowledge. In low-risk areas, added knowledge increased willingness to prepare whereas in high-risk areas this knowledge decreased willingness. CONCLUSION: To turn expert information into common knowledge and to increase earthquake preparedness, the authorities must educate the public to generate a new public preparedness norm.

Causal Inference in Studying the Long-Term Health Effects of Disasters: Challenges and Potential Solutions.

Two frequently encountered but underrecognized challenges for causal inference in studying the long-term health effects of disasters among survivors include 1) time-varying effects of disasters on a time-to-event outcome and 2) selection bias due to selective attrition. In this paper, we review approaches for overcoming these challenges and demonstrate application of the approaches to a real-world longitudinal data set of older adults who were directly affected by the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami (n = 4,857). To illustrate the problem of time-varying effects of disasters, we examined the association between degree of damage due to the tsunami and all-cause mortality. We compared results from Cox regression analysis assuming proportional hazards with those derived using adjusted parametric survival curves allowing for time-varying hazard ratios. To illustrate the problem of selection bias, we examined the association between proximity to the coast (a proxy for housing damage from the tsunami) and depressive symptoms. We corrected for selection bias due to attrition in the 2 postdisaster follow-up surveys (conducted in 2013 and 2016) using multivariable adjustment, inverse probability of censoring weighting, and survivor average causal effect estimation. Our results demonstrate that analytical approaches which ignore time-varying effects on mortality and selection bias due to selective attrition may underestimate the long-term health effects of disasters.

Large-scale experiment to assess the collision impact force from a tsunami wave on a drifting castaway.

Although most fatalities in tsunami-related disasters are conjectured to be a result of drowning, injury risk owing to collision with other floating debris or fixed buildings has not been studied sufficiently. In this study, the impact force corresponding to the collision of a concrete block and drifting test body in a tsunami wave was experimentally investigated, and the injury risk was evaluated in terms of different biomechanical indexes; specifically, maximum acceleration, head injury criterion, and impact force. The injury risk indicated by the considered indexes was reasonably low. It was noted that if a healthy adult collided with a concrete wall under a velocity of 2.5 m s-1 and wave height of 0.59 m, the adult would likely not be critically injured. However, a similar collision impact poses considerable risk to infants and children, as well as the more sensitive regions of the adult body. Moreover, in the case of large tsunamis, such as that in the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, a drifting person may be at considerable risk for injuries. The collision impact occurring on the tip of a surge flow is notably significantly larger than that on a bore flow. This is because a surge flow, which arrives at the concrete block earlier than a bore flow, forms a certain water layer along the concrete wall and that layer acts as a cushion for any body drifting on the bore flow, indicating the importance of such a buffering effect. These findings can provide practical guidance regarding the formulation of effective tsunami-protection measures.

Association between atrial fibrillation and white blood cell count after the Great East Japan Earthquake: An observational study from the Fukushima Health Management Survey.

ABSTRACT: We had earlier reported about the increase in the prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF) among residents in the evacuation zone of Fukushima Prefecture after the Great East Japan Earthquake. In the present investigation, we explored the association between the prevalence of AF and white blood cell (WBC) count after the earthquake through an observational cross-sectional study.A total of 14,800 participants (6427 men and 8373 women) were included in the Fukushima Health Management Survey. For the present study, 12-lead electrocardiogram tracings and the WBC count and its subtypes were obtained and analyzed. The odds ratios (ORs) of AF after the earthquake and the 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for one standard deviation of differential WBC count were calculated after adjustments for age and other potential confounding factors using the logistic regression model.Our results revealed a prevalence of AF of 1.8% (269 participants) after the earthquake. Monocyte count and neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio exhibited a significant association with the prevalence of AF in the multivariable-adjusted model. The adjusted ORs of monocyte count and neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio for AF were 1.21 (95% CI, 1.05-1.40, P = .01) and 1.22 (95% CI, 1.01-1.44, P < .05), respectively.The prevalence of AF was associated with increased monocyte count and neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio among residents in the evacuation zone in Fukushima Prefecture, suggesting that inflammation and psychological stress could be important factors mediating the development of AF after the earthquake.

Is there any association between dietary patterns, food security status and psychiatric disorders among Iranian earthquake victims?

BACKGROUND: Diet changes through disasters may affect psychological health as well as general health. The present study aimed to find food security status-that is defined by having enough food for an active, healthy life-dietary patterns and their relationship with probable psychiatric disorders in earthquake survivors. METHODS: This cross-sectional study conducted on 350 women who survived in East Azarbaijan earthquake (At 4:53 am on 11 August 2012). Food frequency questionnaire, Depression, Anxiety and Stress Scale and food security questionnaire of the US Department of Agriculture were used to assess dietary patterns, psychological and food security status, respectively. P values were considered significant at <0.05. RESULTS: Four major dietary patterns were defined based on factor analysis. These four dietary patterns explained of 37.09% variation of food intakes. Ten per cent of the population was food secure. There was no significant association between tertiles of major dietary patterns and risk of all psychological disorders (p values>0.05). CONCLUSION: There was no statistically significant association between major dietary patterns and psychiatric disorders. Further well-designed studies need to find any significant association.

Study Profile of the Tohoku Medical Megabank Community-Based Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: We established a community-based cohort study to assess the long-term impact of the Great East Japan Earthquake on disaster victims and gene-environment interactions on the incidence of major diseases, such as cancer and cardiovascular diseases. METHODS: We asked participants to join our cohort in the health check-up settings and assessment center based settings. Inclusion criteria were aged 20 years or over and living in Miyagi or Iwate Prefecture. We obtained information on lifestyle, effect of disaster, blood, and urine information (Type 1 survey), and some detailed measurements (Type 2 survey), such as carotid echography and calcaneal ultrasound bone mineral density. All participants agreed to measure genome information and to distribute their information widely. RESULTS: As a result, 87,865 gave their informed consent to join our study. Participation rate at health check-up site was about 70%. The participants in the Type 1 survey were more likely to have psychological distress than those in the Type 2 survey, and women were more likely to have psychological distress than men. Additionally, coastal residents were more likely to have higher degrees of psychological distress than inland residents, regardless of sex. CONCLUSION: This cohort comprised a large sample size and it contains information on the natural disaster, genome information, and metabolome information. This cohort also had several detailed measurements. Using this cohort enabled us to clarify the long-term effect of the disaster and also to establish personalized prevention based on genome, metabolome, and other omics information.

Seismic preparedness of families with children: Measures and dynamics.

Earthquakes are unpredictable events, thus seismic preparedness of households should be fostered, considering the specific needs of each family. Children, for example, are particularly vulnerable to disasters and to the effects of their consequences, but can also act as promoters of preparedness within families. Being part of a wider research, this qualitative study intends to better understand seismic preparedness within families with children in S. Miguel, the largest and most populated island of the volcanic archipelago of the Azores. Two semi-structured interviews were conducted. The first interview was conducted with 125 family representatives, addressing their current preparedness measures. From these representatives, 105 families that had non-existent or insufficient preparedness were selected for a second interview. In the time between the two interviews, the families were instructed to develop seismic preparedness measures. The process of development of these measures was also assessed. Data were analysed using content analysis and frequency analysis. Results point to low levels of preparedness, both at the time of the initial interview and developed subsequently, and families adopted few preparedness measures specifically targeting their children's needs. The results highlight, therefore, that household seismic preparedness should be promoted, with clear indications regarding preparedness specifically for families with children.

Revitalizing Graduate Medical Education in Global Settings: Lessons From Post-Earthquake Haiti.

Following the massive 7.0-magnitude earthquake that devastated much of the Haitian capital city of Port-au-Prince on January 12, 2010, the Haitian health system and its medical education programs were fragmented, fragile, and facing a significant, overwhelming demand for clinical care. In response, the authors of this paper and the institutions they represent supported the development of a teaching hospital that could fill the void in academic training capacity while prioritizing the health of Haiti's rural poor-goals aligned with the Haitian Ministry of Health (MOH) strategy. This bold initiative aimed to address both the immediate and long-term health care needs within post-disaster Haiti through a strategic investment in graduate medical education (GME). Here, the authors describe their approach, which included building consensus, aspiring to international standards, and investing in shared governance structures under Haitian leadership. The Haitian MOH strategy and priorities guided the development, implementation, and expansion of solutions to the ongoing crisis in human resources for health within the acute context. Local leadership of this initiative ensured a sustained and transformative model of GME that has carried Haiti beyond acute relief and toward a more reliable health system. The enduring success can be measured through sustained governance systems, graduates who have remained in Haiti, standardized curricula, a culture of continuous improvement, and the historic achievement of international accreditation. While ongoing challenges persist, Haiti has demonstrated that the strategy of investing in GME in response to acute disasters should be considered in other global settings to support the revitalization of tenuous health systems.

[Collective trauma and experience of uncertainty: a comparison between the 2012 earthquake and the 2020 pandemic in Italy.] / Trauma collettivo ed esperienza di incertezza: un confronto tra il terremoto del 2012 e la pandemia del 2020 in Italia.

The situation of uncertainty several people faced in Italy due to the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic suggested this contribution concerning the potential outcomes in some safety areas of the primary needs of the individual: safety and security needs, love and belonging needs, esteem, and self-actualization. When uncertainty features one or more of them, the risk of health outcomes increases, specifically with respect to mental health. This contribution compares the experience of the severe earthquake that hit Emilia-Romagna region (North Italy) in May 2012 and the epidemic of CoViD-19 officially started in Italy in February 2020. Both experiences were lived by the authors, as citizens and mental health professionals. The considerations presented stemmed out from the clinical experience and are articulated around some key words: surprise, length, places, society, work, welfare, feelings, economics. Similarities and differences are presented, suggesting that new therapeutic devices are necessary, to hold and treat patients during this specific epidemic, as well as during future ones. Up to the moment we have just been able to chase the shadow, by integrating medieval systems (quarantine) and hyper-technological systems (i.e., the most advanced resuscitation techniques).

Social capital, policy fairness, and subjective life satisfaction of earthquake survivors in Wenchuan, China: a longitudinal study based on post-earthquake survey data.

BACKGROUND: Existing research has rarely examined an earthquake's sustained impact and the trajectory of the earthquake survivors' life satisfaction over time. This study aims to analyze longitudinal changes in life satisfaction of Wenchuan earthquake survivors and the impact of social capital and government relief policy. METHODS: This research applied a hierarchical linear model to longitudinal survey data collected after the earthquake. The survey was divided into three waves and was collected from Deyang City and Mianyang City of Sichuan Province. A random sampling method was used; a sample of 225 participants had valid responses over three waves of the survey. RESULTS: This study found that a survivor's social capital and the perception of the fairness of government relief policy have a significant effect on the trajectory of life satisfaction post-disaster. First, the initial life satisfaction of those with high social capital was significantly higher than of those with low social capital, whilst survivors with high social capital had a lower rate of change in life satisfaction. Second, one year after the earthquake, those who felt government policy was unfair had a lower life satisfaction than those who felt it was fair. However, from the first year to the fourth year after the disaster, survivors who believed that the government policy was unfair experienced a higher rate of change in life satisfaction than those who did not. Third, the fairness of government relief policy moderates the relationship between survivors' social capital and changes in life satisfaction. A fair policy of relief can reduce the negative impact of the lack of individual social capital on life satisfaction. CONCLUSIONS: Survivors reconstruct life satisfaction through their social network and the perception of the fairness of the government's post-disaster relief policy. Therefore, to promote the improvement of life satisfaction of survivors, it is necessary to cultivate social capital and ensure fairness of the relief policy.

COVID-19 lockdown and its latency in Northern Italy: seismic evidence and socio-economic interpretation.

The Italian Government has decreed a series of progressive restrictions to delay the COVID-19 pandemic diffusion in Italy since March 10, 2020, including limitation in individual mobility and the closure of social, cultural, economic and industrial activities. Here we show the lockdown effect in Northern Italy, the COVID-19 most affected area, as revealed by noise variation at seismic stations. The reaction to lockdown was slow and not homogeneous with spots of negligible noise reduction, especially in the first week. A fresh interpretation of seismic noise variations in terms of socio-economic indicators sheds new light on the lockdown efficacy pointing to the causes of such delay: the noise reduction is significant where non strategic activities prevails, while it is small or negligible where dense population and strategic activities are present. These results are crucial for the a posteriori interpretation of the pandemic diffusion and the efficacy of differently targeted political actions.

On Modeling the Earthquake Insurance Data via a New Member of the T-X Family.

Heavy-tailed distributions play an important role in modeling data in actuarial and financial sciences. In this article, a new method is suggested to define new distributions suitable for modeling data with a heavy right tail. The proposed method may be named as the Z-family of distributions. For illustrative purposes, a special submodel of the proposed family, called the Z-Weibull distribution, is considered in detail to model data with a heavy right tail. The method of maximum likelihood estimation is adopted to estimate the model parameters. A brief Monte Carlo simulation study for evaluating the maximum likelihood estimators is done. Furthermore, some actuarial measures such as value at risk and tail value at risk are calculated. A simulation study based on these actuarial measures is also done. An application of the Z-Weibull model to the earthquake insurance data is presented. Based on the analyses, we observed that the proposed distribution can be used quite effectively in modeling heavy-tailed data in insurance sciences and other related fields. Finally, Bayesian analysis and performance of Gibbs sampling for the earthquake data have also been carried out.

Evaluating the Prevalence of PTSD among Children and Adolescents after Earthquakes and Floods: a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Our study systematically reviews articles about the prevalence of Post-traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) among children and adolescents, aiming to evaluate its prevalence after earthquakes and floods.Three databases (PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science) were searched for articles published from 1981 to 2019 containing information on PTSD prevalence among survivors of earthquakes and floods. Articles with insufficient data on the prevalence of PTSD or without any available full-text were excluded. Major study variables consist of the prevalence of PTSD of the included studies, gender, and the elapsed time after the disaster. The overall PTSD prevalence was determined using a fixed-effect model for eligible studies. Of 4107 studies listed using our search strategy, 439 underwent full-text review, 59 records included in the systematic review, and 39 records met the criteria for meta-analysis. The pooled prevalence of PTSD among children and adolescent survivors after earthquakes and floods was 19.2% (95%CI = 18.6-19.7%), 30.0% (95%CI = 29.5-30.6%), 24.4% (95%CI = 23.4-25.4%) and 20.4% (95%CI = 19.1-21.7%), in the first, second, third and fourth six-month intervals after the disaster, respectively. Our analysis also revealed that PTSD was more prevalent among girls (p < 0.001). The absence of psychological support for affected areas considerably increases the risk of PTSD among survivors. Our results indicated that children and adolescents, especially girls, are more vulnerable and should be in top priority. The governments should refine their policies on post-disaster services and run early screening, immediate intervention, and ongoing monitoring for PTSD, as well as mental and emotional supports.

Characteristic activities of slow earthquakes in Japan.

Slow earthquakes are a recently discovered phenomenon that mainly occur updip and downdip of the seismogenic zones of great earthquakes along the subducting plate interface. The spatiotemporal activity of various slow earthquakes occurring in the Nankai subduction zone is characterized by along-strike heterogeneity and along-dip systematic changes. Various slow earthquakes are horizontally distributed at their own depths and along-strike segments can be observed with respect to this distribution downdip of the locked zone; however, slow and great earthquakes occur in the same depth range near the Nankai Trough and Japan Trench axes. The frequently observed spatiotemporal interactions between different slow earthquakes can be attributed to their sensitivity and the stress transfer of the surrounding areas. This stress transfer is expected to extend to the adjacent sections in the seismogenic zone. Therefore, precise monitoring of slow earthquakes is important for future evaluations of great earthquakes, which requires the long-term maintenance and continuous improvement of the high-quality observation networks.

Health-related quality of life and post-traumatic stress disorder in inpatients injured in the Ludian earthquake: a longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this longitudinal study was to identify risk factors for posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in inpatients injured in the Ludian earthquake and examine the relationship between PTSD symptoms and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) following the earthquake. METHODS: Three assessments were performed during an 18-month follow-up period. In total, one-hundred forty-seven inpatients of one-hundred seventy-four inpatients (85% of the initial sample) underwent all the assessments. Injured inpatients admitted to the No. 1 People's Hospital of Zhaotong City after a severe earthquake (6.5 on the Richter scale) were enrolled in the study and assessed using the Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Checklist-Civilian Version, Clinician-Administered Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Scale, and Medical Outcomes Study Short Form-36 Scale. RESULTS: At the first, third and eighteenth months after the earthquake, the prevalence rates for PTSD were 23, 14, and 7%, respectively. In a regression model, bereavement, history of major diseases, and severe injury in the earthquake were associated with severe PTSD symptoms. HRQoL was negatively correlated with PTSD symptoms. Compared to that of Chinese norms, participants' HRQoL was significantly lower in all eight HRQoL domains of the Medical Outcomes Study Short Form-36 Scale. CONCLUSIONS: The findings suggest that a substantial proportion of inpatients injured in the earthquake experienced severe PTSD symptoms and poor HRQoL. Therefore, early preventive programs and interventions should be implemented following disasters, to reduce PTSD and improve HRQoL in injured individuals.

Trust in Humanitarian Aid From the Earthquake in 2017 to COVID-19 in Iran: A Policy Analysis.

The earthquake of November 2017, the great flood of April 2019, and the COVID-19 outbreak in 2020 are 3 major emergencies in Iran during the last 3 years. A common issue in all of these crises seems to be the issue of "trust." Official authorities, including the Iranian President, ministers, and the judiciary system, tried to gain people's trust by either changing policies or developing new ones. In August 2019, the new law on crisis management in Iran went into effect and the issue of public donation has been considered, too. Also, in their response to the COVID-19 outbreak, Iranian officials ordered all sectors to cooperate with the Ministry of Health and provide it with all necessary facilities. Therefore, it seems that new policies are still needed to overcome mistrust in Iran at times of emergency. Developing a policy on donation management was the first step, and there are several factors that could have contributed to the perception of the mistrust and failure in emergency missions. Mistrust can be the result of different causes, including but not limited to lack of knowledge on capabilities and efficiencies of humanitarian organizations, engagement of a wide range of organizations from different categories, extension of mistrust of an organization to other emergency organizations in the area or all of operation, lack of unity in emergency response, and poor public relations.

Did internal displacement from the 2010 earthquake in Haiti lead to long-term violence against children? A matched pairs study design.

BACKGROUND: Empirical evidence is limited and contradictory on violence against children after internal displacement from natural disasters. Understanding how internal displacement affects violence is key in structuring effective prevention and response. OBJECTIVE: We examined the effect of internal displacement from the 2010 Haitian earthquake on long-term physical, emotional, and sexual violence against children and outlined a methodological framework to improve future evidence quality. PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING: We analyzed violence against adolescent girls and boys within the nationally representative, Haiti Violence Against Children Survey. METHODS: We pre-processed data by matching on pre-earthquake characteristics for displaced and non-displaced children and applied 95 % confidence intervals from McNemar's exact test, with sensitivity analyses, to evaluate differences in violence outcomes between matched pairs after the earthquake. RESULTS: Internal displacement was not associated with past 12-month physical, emotional, and sexual violence two years after the earthquake for girls and boys. Most violence outcomes were robust to potential unmeasured confounding. Odds ratios for any form of violence against girls were 0.84 (95 % CI: 0.52-1.33, p = 0.500) and against boys were 1.03 (95 % CI: 0.61-1.73, p = 1.000). CONCLUSIONS: Internal displacement was not a driver of long-term violence against children in Haiti. Current global protocols in disaster settings may initiate services after the optimal window of time to protect children from violence, and the post-displacement setting may be central in determining violence outcomes. The combination of specific data structures and matching methodologies is promising to increase evidence quality after rapid-onset natural disasters, especially in low-resource settings.

Survival-oriented personality factors are associated with various types of social support in an emergency disaster situation.

Mutual help is common in human society, particularly during a disaster. The psychological processes underlying such social support are of interest in social and evolutionary psychology, as well as in the promotion of community resilience. However, research in terms of personality factors or support types is sporadic and has yet to address actual emergency situations. In this study, we analyzed survey data from survivors of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami. The data included five types of social support occurring during the evacuation from a potential tsunami area: providing and receiving actual help and oral encouragement, as well as perceived support. The personality factor items included the Big Five dimensions and eight "power to live" factors, which were identified as advantageous for survival during this disaster. While none of the Big Five dimensions were associated with social support, six of the power to live factors were. Altruism, problem solving, etiquette, and self-transcendence contributed to the provision of actual help. Leadership and active well-being contributed to oral encouragement with the latter contributing also to perceived support. The findings were largely consistent with the literature in a non-emergency context. The relevance of the majority of these pro-survival personality factors to social support appeared to support the view that the propensity to cooperate in service of human survival in a disaster situation is primarily a social, rather than an individual, phenomenon, and encourages research on the mechanisms underlying how personality factors provide a benefit to both the individual and their community.